China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Despite uncertainty surrounding the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year, today's downbeat PMI suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector continue to deteriorate. With no loosening of... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) & MPC Minutes (Feb.) The latest labour market data showed that there is still plenty of spare capacity in the job market. Since the minutes of February’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Committee is committed to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economic growth too slow to bring down unemployment The Egyptian economy has shown signs of recovering in recent months but this has yet to feed through to the labour market. Crucially, GDP growth is still below the rates of around 4-5% that are needed... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Feb.) Wednesday’s labour market figures seem likely to indicate that there is still considerable slack in the economy which will keep inflationary pressures subdued for some time to come. Indeed, by our... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African labour market conditions remain tough On the face of it, the fall in South Africa’s unemployment rate to a two-year low in Q4 is encouraging, but much of this can be explained by a rise in temporary employment in sectors that deliver low... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The modest rebound in employment in January, which was not enough to reverse completely the slump last December, suggests that bad weather isn't the only factor depressing labour market conditions... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The disappointing 113,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January cannot be blamed on the weather but, nonetheless, with the unemployment rate continuing to edge lower, to only 6.6% last month, we... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling real wages partly mitigated by rising employment The threat to the economic recovery from falling real wages may not be as big as many fear, given the trade-off between higher pay or more job creation. Nonetheless, consumers are understandably far... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Brighter signs don't preclude need for more policy action Despite the recent bout of disappointing global economic news and financial market turbulence, economic indicators like the PMI suggest that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery gained a bit of a momentum... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for 2014 still bright The economic recovery appears to have remained strong at the start of 2014. Although the composite CIPS/Markit activity index weakened again in January, it still points on the basis of past form to... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Stronger wages and salaries growth unlikely to last The recent non-farm payroll figures suggest that wages and salaries growth continued to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which should have helped support stronger consumption growth. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data maintained the pressure on the ECB to do more to ward off deflation risks, perhaps as soon as next week. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather effects fade Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
