Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Latin America’s economy looks set to remain stuck in the slow lane over the next couple of years. The drivers of strong growth over the past decade – including rapid credit growth and strong global... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack FX accumulation by firms allows PBOC to step back The People’s Bank (PBOC) further reduced its foreign exchange purchases to around $6bn in May, the lowest in almost a year. Given last month’s large trade surplus, this might suggest that capital... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) June’s fall in ZEW economic expectations suggested that investors were unimpressed by recent ECB action and added to signs that the German recovery is nearing a peak. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) & Employment (Q1) April’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the strong euro continues to undermine export growth, highlighting that the ECB still has more to do to support the recovery. 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) Although employment is continuing to grow very rapidly, there still appears to be enough slack in the jobs market to prevent pay growth from picking up. 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Consumer Confidence (May) The improvements in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers Survey last month add to the evidence that the slump after the consumption tax hike is unlikely to last long. 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 25,800 rebound in employment in May wasn't quite enough to reverse fully the slightly bigger decline in the previous month and it leaves the level of employment barely higher over the past six... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The robust 217,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May is another illustration that the economy is back on the right track after the earlier weather-related weakness. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth rebounding in second quarter The world economy slowed significantly in Q1, largely because output contracted in the US and growth weakened in China. But this should be followed by a rebound in the current quarter. Indeed, the... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Strong growth but still no productivity rebound While the latest activity surveys suggest that the recovery might have gathered pace in the second quarter, a revival in productivity has remained elusive. Indeed, firms are hiring workers in record... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation risks still mounting May’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.7% to 0.5% left it at its joint weakest rate since October 2009 and far beneath the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling. There is no sign of inflationary... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new measure of labour availability A new measure of the availability of labour places another question mark over the Fed’s belief that there is much more slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate suggests. This supports our... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) The ongoing fall in basic pay shows that the increases agreed upon in the spring wage negotiations have so far not filtered through to employees not covered by these talks. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack GDP growth slowed in Q1, likely to remain sluggish First quarter GDP data released over the past month suggest that the region’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with growth dipping to just 2.0% y/y in Q1, down from 2.2% y/y in Q4... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
