US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Despite a small rise this month, small business confidence remains subdued. However, shrinking spare capacity and higher input costs point to rising price pressure. 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that manufacturing activity has continued to cool, but it also provided some hope that downward pressure on domestic demand has eased up so far in the fourth quarter. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (November) While the flash manufacturing PMI edged lower in November, it still indicates that activity in the sector will continue to recover. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are real wages rising faster than the official figures suggest? The latest figures showing that annual growth in average earnings has only just begun to exceed inflation appear to understate the extent to which living standards are improving for most people. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices regain some poise The various measures of house prices appear to be sending different messages, but on balance it looks like price gains have picked up again following outright falls earlier in the year. The Case-... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown – one year on It’s been a year since the Saudi Arabian authorities launched a crackdown on illegal migrants working in the Kingdom. In this Watch, we assess what impact that the crackdown, as well as the government... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) The latest labour market data provided encouraging signs that the strength of the jobs recovery is finally starting to feed through to a sustained pick-up in real wages. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The sharp fall in the Economy Watchers Survey in October adds to other survey evidence pointing to a sluggish economic recovery. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October and remains barely higher than immediately after the sales tax hike. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The stronger than expected employment gain of 43,100 in October, following a massive 74,100 rise in September, is the most encouraging sign yet that the economy may have shifted into a higher gear... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising wage growth confirms labour slack is shrinking Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
