For a second successive year, global GDP growth dropped sharply in Q1 due to a slowdown in the US and China. But business surveys, which may be a better gauge of the underlying health of the economy, suggest that activity has, if anything, strengthened in recent months. The slump in oil prices, steady rise in employment and (in the US) end of the bad weather all suggest that household spending should grow rapidly in the coming months. Activity is likely to pick up particularly strongly in the US, and in the euro-zone the launch of full-blown QE is helping to boost business and consumer confidence, at least temporarily.
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