Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recovery gradually building momentum The key euro-zone surveys of activity and sentiment continued to pick up in Q1, particularly in the periphery, suggesting that GDP growth in the region as a whole may have been a bit stronger than in... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) & Final Manu. PMI (Mar.) February’s euro-zone labour market figures underlined the fact that the economic recovery is still far too weak to make a significant dent in the high level of unemployment across the currency union. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Taken at face value, today's PMIs appear to offer conflicting messages. In practice however, their divergence provides useful clues into the state of the manufacturing sector, suggesting that large... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) Japan's consumers continue to face severe headwinds as strong employment gains remain insufficient to compensate for falling real wages. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The improvement in business conditions last quarter fell short of expectations, and the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey suggests that growth will slow sharply in the second quarter of this year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer spending was sluggish in February, but the real surge ahead of next month's consumption tax hike will only show up in the March figures. Meanwhile, there are further signs that underlying... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather effects starting to reverse The weather didn't quite return to seasonal norms in March, but it was nowhere near as bad as it was between December and February. We have pencilled in a gain of 200,000 in payroll employment in... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until 2016 Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's consumer sector is picking up After enduring a slump for much of 2013, retail sales in Emerging Asia (ex. China) appear to have turned a corner. Growth has picked up strongly across most countries in the region in recent months... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's weak PMI reading is the latest sign that slowing credit and investment growth are weighing on domestic demand. That said, with no sign of stress in the labour market, the slowdown does not yet... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Demographics to weigh on economic growth and interest rates In his speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz argued that the legacy of the financial crisis and demographic changes can explain Canada's recent lacklustre economic performance. More... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation further Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) & MPC Minutes (Mar.) Today’s figures showed that the recovery in the labour market is slowing, increasing the chances that the MPC keeps official interest rates on hold until late next year. 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update There is no hidden rot in the jobs numbers The slump in average weekly hours worked over the past few months is undoubtedly weather-related and we expect to see a bounce back in the spring. 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Mar.) Wednesday’s labour market figures look set to show that the unemployment rate resumed its downward trend at the start of 2014. But they also seem likely to confirm that there is still plenty of spare... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
