Europe Economic Outlook

As good as it gets?

While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the...

8th July 2014 · 1 min read

Global Economics Chart Pack

US pulling further ahead of the euro-zone

All the evidence suggests that the US economy has bounced back during the past few months, after its weather-induced slump. Business surveys have remained buoyant, credit growth has accelerated and...

4th July 2014 · 1 min read

UK Economics Chart Pack

Pay growth likely to spring back soon

While the economic recovery appears to have accelerated in Q2, workers are still failing to see the benefits in their pay packets. Annual growth in average weekly earnings fell from 2.2% to -1.7% in...

3rd July 2014 · 1 min read

US Data Response

Employment Report (Jun. 14)

The evident strength of the labour market in June is one of the key reasons why we think that the Fed will be persuaded to begin raising interest rates earlier than most expect. The unemployment rate...

3rd July 2014 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Final Manu. PMI (Jun.)

May's unemployment data highlighted that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is still too weak to erode the significant amount of slack in the labour market.

1st July 2014 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Cash Earnings (May)

The first rise in base pay in almost two years suggests that PM Abe's "Wage Surprise" is starting to work.

1st July 2014 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Tankan (Q2)

While today's Tankan points to a contraction in GDP of around 0.5% q/q last quarter, the survey suggests that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year.

1st July 2014 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Small Business Confidence (Jun.) & Housing Starts (May)

According to June's small business confidence, the economy has recovered quickly from the shock to demand caused by the consumption tax hike.

30th June 2014 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Weekly

Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone

While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our...

30th June 2014 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea will struggle to overcome its demographic drag

Korea has some of the worst demographic dynamics in Emerging Asia. Not only is the population set to age dramatically, but the size of the overall workforce is also set to fall sharply. Although the...

30th June 2014 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow”

The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost...

30th June 2014 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (national: May; Tokyo: Jun.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (May)

The rebound in retail sales and the renewed decline in the unemployment rate in May confirm that the slump following the consumption tax hike was short-lived.

27th June 2014 · 1 min read

US Employment Report Preview

Small firms in the driving seat

Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by another healthy 200,000 in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in May. Meanwhile, the recent surge...

26th June 2014 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

The view from the ground – Q2 2014

Business and household confidence in China took a turn for the worse this quarter, but it is not at an alarmingly low level. Meanwhile, banks are reporting a decline in loan demand, particularly from...

26th June 2014 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Flash Manufacturing PMI (June)

June's flash manufacturing PMI confirms that the economy has stabilised after the slump caused by the consumption tax hike.

23rd June 2014 · 1 min read