Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) While the renewed improvement in small business confidence in July lifted the index well above its long-term average, the survey still points to sluggish industrial output. 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Jun.) Today's data showed the second consecutive rise in retail sales following April's plunge and a tightening labour market suggests that the recovery in consumer spending should continue in coming months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are tensions with China hurting exports? Japan’s share of Chinese imports has fallen below that of the EU and South Korea recently. One reason is that large numbers of Japanese firms have shifted production facilities to China. This shouldn... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina teeters on the brink of another default With talks between Buenos Aires and holdout bondholders seemingly having stalled, it appears increasingly likely that Argentina will be prevented from making an interest payment that is due on... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Surge in part-time employment is not a big concern Our econometric model suggests that non-farmpayroll employment increased by around 225,000in July. That would be smaller than June’s increaseof 288,000, but it would still be consistent withjob growth... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A cyclical rise in wage growth is underway A cyclical rise in wage growth appears to be underway in some sectors of the economy and in some US States. This suggests it is only a matter of time before the decline in the national unemployment... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slack in labour market has increased Canadian labour market conditions appear to have deteriorated over the past year and a half, even though the unemployment rate has been unchanged. While net employment gains have been unusually weak... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the worst over for pay? Last week’s labour market data was something of a curate’s egg. Although a further fall in theunemployment rate indicated that the jobs recovery has continued at a rapid pace, the earningsfigures... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: solid but unspectacular outlook for retailers Amid the recent sharp contractions in output from South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors, the better-than-expected performance from the retail sector comes as welcome news. But given that... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) Although employment has continued to grow rapidly, there still appears to beenough slack in the jobs market to prevent pay from picking up. 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Q2 growth edges up on policy fine-tuning Economic activity appears to have picked up in June, resulting in stronger-than-expected Q2 growth. This should assuage hard landing fears and leave policymakers feeling vindicated in their decision... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Quality of jobs being created is above average Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
