Global Economics Chart Pack Gulf between US and euro-zone widens The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth likely to slow again Labour cash earnings expanded at the fastest pace since 1997 in July. Given recent, much slower, gains in productivity and the low likelihood of significant further tightening in the labour market, we... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) & ADP (Aug.) The further decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $40.5bn in July, from $40.8bn the month before, suggests that net external trade will make a larger positive contribution to third... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation threat raises pressure on the ECB August’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.4% to 0.3% left it at its lowest rate sinceOctober 2009, when it was negative, and well beneath the ECB’s target of “below, but closeto, 2%”. What’s... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (July) Wage growth surged in July, but is set to slow in coming months as the summer bonus season ends. 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for wage inflation? With the important exception of the US, we expect wage inflation in the major advanced economies to remain subdued in the coming year or two, even as labour markets approach “full employment”. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s flash euro-zone CPI inflation data underlined the absence of price pressures in the currency union and should encourage the ECB to offer stronger hints of additional policy support to come... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (July) Today's data on industrial production and retail sales show that the economy continued to stagnate at the start of the third quarter. What's more, inflation moderated in July and is set to decline... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Improving trend reasserts itself Our econometric model implies that the easing injob growth and the rise in the unemployment ratein July were just blips in otherwise improvingtrends. We estimate that payroll employment roseby around... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Dubai's GREs slowly tackling their debt problems Over the past month Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs), which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, have made further efforts to tackle their huge mountains of debt. The recovery... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are part-time workers depressing wage growth? Growth in the share of part-time workers in Japan’s workforce is one factor being blamed for the recent sluggishness of wage growth. In reality, this shift has not had much of an impact on aggregate... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Aug.) While small business confidence weakened in August, firms expect conditions to improve strongly next month. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much of a threat is “hollowing out”? The conventional wisdom is that Japan’s firms have increasingly shifted production facilities abroad in recent years, resulting in a “hollowing out” of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. But... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
