Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate, to 6.8% from 6.6%, reflects the early negative effects of a downturn in the mining sector. Accordingly, this supports our... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah weakness is unlikely to revive Indonesia’s economy The weakness of the Indonesian rupiah is unlikely to kick-start a recovery in the country’s non-commodity export sector. For one thing, it has not left Indonesian exporters looking any more... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Overtime hours point to lingering job market slack Judging by the unemployment rate alone, the labour market is tight, vindicating the Bank of Japan’s view that price pressure has strengthened since the launch of QQE. But other measures, such as the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to bounce back, but remain low Many advanced economies will experience several months of negative headline inflation this year as a result of the plunge in oil prices, but few are at risk of a prolonged or damaging bout of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) While the strong rebound in consumer sentiment in February is welcome, there are increasing signs that household inflation expectations are declining. 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Feb.) The 15,600 increase in Australian employment and slight fall in the unemployment rate last month may be seen by some commentators as a cause for relief. But the bigger picture is that Australia’s... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed close to embarking on return to normality With the labour market still evidently on fire in February, we expect the FOMC statement next Wednesday to omit the language that the Fed can be "patient" in beginning to normalise monetary policy... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is German wage growth finally taking off? The latest data on German wage growth suggest that pay is finally beginning to respond to the long labour market recovery. With deflation offering a further boost to real wage growth, we expect the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why are the public finances not already fixed? If the fiscal squeeze had gone to plan, no more austerity would now be needed. The assumption that the recovery would be strong and tax-friendly was misplaced. The next government should be dealt a... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) The latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that the recovery in retail spending has lost some pace at the start of this year, after a stellar fourth quarter. But falling unemployment... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The jump in February’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that economic conditions are improving strongly. However, the survey still points to a slowdown in manufacturing activity in coming months... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 295,000 increase in payroll employment in February (consensus forecast 235,000) and the further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% illustrate that, even if wage growth is still subdued, the Fed... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was that it? The end of the so-called income recession late last year appears to suggest that the direct hit to the Australian economy from the fall in the prices of key commodity exports has already come and gone... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
