Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) Wage growth slowed further in September, and will likely continue to fall short of inflation as the labour market is no longer tightening. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China Watch - Labour market remaining resilient despite property gloom The outlook for China’s economy and for economic policy will be determined by what happens to the property sector and to employment. Despite the latest increase in support for property, the outlook... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Although the PMIs diverged in October, the breakdown of both is consistent with cooling domestic demand and a further slowdown in growth going into Q4. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market reform won’t transform economy The Italian Prime Minister’s package of labour market reforms is a step in the right direction, but reform efforts are moving too slowly to ensure a meaningful reduction in unemployment or improvement... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Faster wage growth could prompt Fed to hike rates The survey-based and anecdotal evidence has been pointing to a sharp acceleration in wage growth for some time, yet the growth rate of the monthly average hourly earnings measure has remained... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) With euro-zone HICP inflation still close to zero in October and the unemployment rate holding near a record high, there remains a significant risk of deflation in the single currency area. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending & Inflation (Sep.) The renewed rise in unemployment last month shows that the labour market is no longer tightening, and we think it will start to slacken in earnest soon. Meanwhile, inflation continues to slow, and... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Going from strength to strength There’s a good chance that October’s Employment Report will send a very strong signal that, despite the recent signs of some softening in overseas demand, the US economy continues to grow at a rapid... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) The third decline in small business confidence in a row suggests that the economy is not quite as strong as the jump in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicated. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain upbeat despite asset price falls On the face of it, the recent sharp fall in equity prices and slowdown in the housing market suggest that the significant improvement in consumer confidence seen over the last year might be reversed... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail rental values finally show signs of life All-property rental values grew by 0.4%m/m in September, the second-biggest monthly increase since mid-2007. Industrial and office sector rental values continued their recovery, but perhaps the most... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
