Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pace of payroll job gains likely to slow The faster pace of payroll job gains might normally be a more trustworthy gauge of labour market trends than the more volatile Labour Force Survey employment figures. The slowdown in real GDP growth... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A manufacturing migration? Rapid wage growth, rising land costs and the appreciation of the renminbi have all helped to make China a less attractive place for low-end manufacturers to operate. Recent trends in foreign direct... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has QQE really lifted inflation expectations? In contrast to the Bank of Japan, we are far from convinced that QQE has lifted inflation expectations. In fact, wage and price setting behaviour have changed little since the programme was launched... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s politics take another twist The conflict in Yemen and an outline nuclear agreement between Iran and the West has thrust the region’s politics back into the spotlight. Although it looks like problems in Yemen are likely to drag... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack January rate cut won't be enough insurance The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC steps up policy support Sunday’s cut to the required reserve ratio for China’s banks signals a stepping-up of policy support. The 100bp cut was double the usual size and the first move on this scale since late 2008. It is... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook More winners than losers The pace of global growth slowed in the first quarter, but it is likely to recover during the rest of the year and in 2016. The windfall gains from lower oil prices, rising employment and continued... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Feb.) The labour market has regained considerable momentum following the slowdown in the second half of last year. Accordingly, the demand for commercial property space, and thus rental value growth, is... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Mar.) Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New government will struggle to revive Finland’s economy The opposition Centre Party looks likely to be the largest party in a coalition government after Finland’s general election on 19th April. But the outcome of the election is unlikely to have a major... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
