Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Apr.) With economic activity sluggish and price pressures subdued despite a tighter labour market, we remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will have to step up the pace of easing before too long. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market appears to be strengthening Our econometric model points to a 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May and we also expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.3%. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia still looks vulnerable Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slowdown in spending in Q1 won’t be long-lasting Whilst the second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that household spending growth slowed a touch at the start of the year, rising nominal wages, falling unemployment and the boost from lower food and... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the worst really over for Russia? The slump in activity data for April put an end to hopes raised in some parts of the government (and markets) that the worst is over for the Russian economy. The steep falls in output are likely to be... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) Despite a rebound in May, small business confidence still suggests that the economic recovery lacks vigour. 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Q1 GDP data confirm EM downturn Most emerging economies have made a weak start to the year. The Q1 GDP data released so far point to a slowdown in aggregate EM economic growth and early activity data for April suggest that this has... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property to remain a drag despite stronger sales Growth in property sales returned to positive territory for the first time in over ayear last month, helped by lower mortgage rates and a loosening of purchasecontrols. But hopes that this marks the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Underemployment to keep a lid on German pay growth On the face of it, the recent drop in German unemployment points to a sharp rise in wages that might make ultra-loose ECB policy difficult to justify. But there is more slack in the labour market than... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Construction employment losses likely only beginning The recent job losses in the construction sector are likely only a precursor of what's in store for the year ahead. Falling energy investment and cooling housing demand could form the perfect storm... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reality check for reform agenda Recent failures to amend the domestic tax system and land acquisition laws are the latest examples of the government's reform agenda running into roadblocks over the past few months. This supports our... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from approaching “strike season” There is a renewed risk of strike action at South Africa’s platinum mines as companies are forced to restructure, leading to job cuts. We believe that the platinum market is already quite tight after... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Mar./Apr.) The soft tone of the labour market figures should temper expectations of a near-term interest rate rise following yesterday’s relatively hawkish comments by some MPC members. Although the fall in... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The increase in the headline index of today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) masks a deterioration in some of the subindices, and we still think that economic activity will remain sluggish in the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) Although employment declined by a larger than expected 19,700 in April, the details showing strong full-time gains was reassuring, as was the fact that the unemployment rate remained at 6.8%... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tory majority brings more clarity to fiscal outlook The Tories’ outright majority indicates that the economy is clearly heading for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze next year. This will represent only the first step towards their... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
