US Economics Update More signs of labour market strength The fall in part-time employment is one more positive trend to emerge from September’s Employment Report. And more recent releases provide further signs that the labour market is improving rapidly. 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone ever escape abnormality? Don’t be fooled by the apparent normalisation of the euro-zone’s financial markets. Conditions in the currency union’s economy are still a very long way from normal. 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s strong Employment Report and August’s decent international trade release have increased the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates next March, as we have been forecasting for some... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery aggravates existing imbalances While the economic recovery seems to have broadly maintained its strong pace in the third quarter, the latest national accounts contained signs that the recovery has exacerbated some of the economy’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for monetary policy in Singapore? The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to keep its exchange rate policy on hold at its upcoming bi-annual policy meeting. In any case, the most important changes to monetary conditions... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Could Q3 be as good as it gets? Although global growth should be a little faster in the second half of the year than the first, it is unlikely to continue rising in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the US looks set for a sustained... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness spreads to Germany The latest survey indicators seem to have confirmed that the euro-zone’s feeble recovery has already passed its peak. September’s fall in the composite PMI, for example, left it consistent with a... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The sharp deterioration in business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector in today's Tankan suggests that output may have shrunk yet again in the third quarter. 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy shifts up a gear 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) September’s fall in euro-zone inflation to a whisker above zero and August’s weak labour market data will add to the pressure on the ECB to signal further policy support at its meeting this Thursday. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) The stagnation in small business confidence in September provides yet another indication that Japan's economic recovery remains sluggish. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug) Wage growth slowed in August, and will likely remain around 1% y/y in coming months as the summer bonus season has come to an end. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Unemployment (Aug.) Today's data are unlikely to dispel concerns about the pace of recovery from last quarter's slump. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown in job growth at odds with other evidence Our econometric model suggests that the recent slowdown in payroll employment growth is at odds with the strengthening in other measures of labour market conditions. As such, we expect that August’s... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Finland set to lag behind Nordic neighbours Finland’s dismal post-crisis economic performance is at odds with the ongoing recoveries of its Nordic neighbours. Although these countries share many characteristics, Finland’s economic decline has... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
