Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are the wages data misleading us? Some BoJ Board Members have cast doubt on the accuracy of the monthly wage data, which show tepid income growth. By contrast, we think these figures reflect the circumstances of Japan’s workers fairly... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in spending temporarily slows Households are continuing to see substantial increases in their purchasing power. Annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) picked up from 2.8% to 3.2% in July, well above that... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays rate hike yet again Despite raising its GDP growth and core inflation forecasts for this year and lowering its unemployment rate forecast for this year, the Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the recent slowdown in the pace of the jobs recovery was only temporary. However, we don’t think that this will prompt the MPC to hike rates soon. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are concerns about the National Living Wage overdone? Concerns have been mounting about the impact of the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April next year, with companies such as Next and Whitbread warning that they will have to put up... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation set to rebound An increase in headline inflation is now “baked in the cake” for most economies. The effects of last year’s oil price slump are set to drop out of the annual comparison in the coming months and fears... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional rate cut still seems like a good bet The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Remaining labour market slack rapidly shrinking The decline in the unemployment rate to only 5.1% in August means that the Fed has arguably already achieved the full employment part of its dual mandate. If there is still any slack left in thel... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker currencies part of the solution, not the problem The economic outlook for Latin America remains pretty gloomy. Weaker growth in China and lower global commodity prices will depress export revenues and, as incomes fall, cause domestic demand to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
