US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The massive 321,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, together with the 44,000 upward revision to the two preceding months, bolsters our view that the Fed will begin to hike interest rates as... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay recovery finally gets underway At last, the UK’s real wage squeeze appears to be over. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up from 1.2% to 1.8% in September and so exceeded the same month’s CPI... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wage growth remains pivotal to timing of MPC rate rise Low inflation is likely to have meant that the MPC’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% this month was straightforward. And while signs that the recovery is maintaining its pace and pay growth is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth slowed in October, but may see a boost from higher winter bonuses by year-end. However, growth in base pay is unlikely to accelerate much further. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Following a surge in industrial output and retail sales in September, we are not too worried about the small drops in October. Indeed, the labour market remains tight despite sluggish demand. However... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Despite a small rise this month, small business confidence remains subdued. However, shrinking spare capacity and higher input costs point to rising price pressure. 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that manufacturing activity has continued to cool, but it also provided some hope that downward pressure on domestic demand has eased up so far in the fourth quarter. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (November) While the flash manufacturing PMI edged lower in November, it still indicates that activity in the sector will continue to recover. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
