Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Czech headline and core inflation in June provides early evidence that the recent labour market improvements and the strength of domestic demand are starting to feed through to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Australia Employment (Jun.) The continued resilience of the labour market in June seems odd given the economic challenges that Australia is facing. As such, we expect that an easing in jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that industrial output is no longer falling, but a rapid rebound is not on the cards either. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Another rate hike to shore up shilling The surprise move by Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike its key interest rate by 150bp today, for the second consecutive meeting, was a signal that the new Governor is serious about curbing... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Greek crisis a sideshow for world economy The global economy is likely to expand at a decent pace in the second half ofthe year, despite escalating tensions in Greece and the recent gyrations in China’s equity market. Business surveys have... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in real wages looks sustainable The latest labour market data provided further evidence that the recovery in wages now has momentum. Indeed, the headline (three-month average of the annual) growth rate in average weekly earnings... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Faltering consumer will drag on growth The dramatic fall in South Africa’s consumer confidence index in Q2 provides yet another sign that consumer spending growth will slow over the course of the year. This is a particularly worrying... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 223,000 increase in payroll employment in June was a bit weaker than we had been expecting, but is offset to some degree by the fall in the unemployment rate, to 5.3% from 5.5%. As such, we still... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) While the Tankan rose last quarter, a range of activity data point to a contraction in GDP in Q2. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack China still the key risk for Lat Am While many parts of the emerging and developed world are sweating over the potential fallout from a looming Greek exit from the Euro-zone, a deeper downturn in China remains the key external risk for... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to within touching distance of the eight-year high seen earlier this year suggests that the surge in real consumption in May... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The renewed decline in euro-zone HICP inflation in June highlighted that the ECB still has a lot of work to do to hit its inflation target in the medium term. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the strength of Australia’s labour market last? The Australian labour market appears to be coping surprisingly well with the end of the mining boom. However, we suspect that the recent data overstate the strength of the labour market. Moreover, if... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
