Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Unemp. (Nov.) Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is on track to fall back within target range in December. However, we doubt that this will be enough to prevent policymakers from raising... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reasons for optimism as 2014 ends On the face of it, 2014 has been another disappointing year for the Indianeconomy. Growth over the first three quarters averaged just 5.2% y/y, only asmall improvement from the trough of 2012-2013 and... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) & Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of December’s meeting indicated that the MPC remains focussed on the outlook for domestic price pressures. As such, the latest labour data showing that pay growth is building but... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What should Mr Abe do to kick-start growth? If the right policies were followed, we estimate that Japan’s potential growth rate could rise by around one percentage point. Measures to slow the shrinkage of the labour force and to reduce the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that Japan’s economy stabilised in the fourth quarter, but a rapid recovery is not on the cards. 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests unlikely to prevent lending revival in 2015 The Bank of England will publish the results of its latest stress test of UK banks this week. While we would not like to wager that all eight banks will pass this year’s tough assessment, the lifting... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone industrial data for October and employment figures for Q3 confirmed that, even before the resurgence of the Greek crisis and associated political and economic uncertainty, underlying... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The renewed fall in consumer confidence last month shows that Abenomics provides little reason to cheer for Japan’s households. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed should watch the NFIB not JOLTs The NFIB small business survey is more useful than the JOLTs survey since it tells us what is going to happen to labour market conditions rather than what has just happened. It suggests that payrolls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Any rebound in house price inflation will be temporary Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
