Europe Economics Update French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’s We think France’s government borrowing costs will rise above those of Italy before long. This may seem surprising in light of Italy’s higher debt burden and lower trend growth rate, but it reflects... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is Japan’s fiscal situation reaching a breaking point? 23rd July 2025, 9:00AM BST The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face
Japan Economics Update LDP election defeat points to looser fiscal policy in Japan With Japan’s ruling coalition losing its majority in the Upper House, fiscal policy may be loosened over the coming months. However, we think that the outlook for monetary policy will be a more... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey’s return to easing, Trump’s threat to Putin US President Trump’s threat of 'secondary' tariffs on Russia - which would apply to countries buying energy from Russia - if followed through on, could exert a major squeeze on Russia’s fiscal... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s legislature could flip behind the president Taiwan’s gridlocked government could secure a legislative majority and freedom to enact its policy goals if recall votes next week go its way. The immediate implications for the economy are limited –... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are fiscal concerns mounting again in Japan? We don’t think worries about Japan’s fiscal position are too severe, and expect the country’s equities and exchange rate, at least, to recover by the end of the year. 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Indonesia breach its budget deficit limit? Indonesia’s government is cutting spending and considering new taxes as it tries to prevent the budget deficit breaching the 3% of GDP legal limit. An alternative for President Prabowo Subianto would... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt-IMF latest, Morocco’s auto and tourism booms The latest IMF Article IV for Egypt released this week noted the country’s reform progress, but also highlighted key areas that require more work, including strengthening central bank independence and... 17th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal risks still simmering across CEE Measures of fiscal risk premia have generally eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but the region’s public debt dynamics remain a point of concern. Budget deficits... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why is inflation in Saudi Arabia so low? Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the... 14th July 2025 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Defence boost demands more than a federal whip-round The federal government’s ambitious plans to boost defence spending will require more than operational spending cuts, although Canada’s favourable fiscal position leaves plenty of scope to borrow... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
