Japan Economics Weekly

Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation

While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past impact of energy rebates

This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto?

While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three...

13th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance

The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and...

13th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy?

The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and...

12th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office?

France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point?

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook

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The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F

Africa Economics Weekly

SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike

South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non...

7th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures

The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The disconnect between the tax and spending plans

While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a...

7th June 2024 · 9 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Update

Which taxes could rise after the election?

Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space...

5th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Mexico’s election

Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed...

3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read