Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Federal Election The Australian Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is cruising towards victory in yesterday’s federal election. Given that our forecasts assumed policy continuity, we are inclined to... 4th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't... 1st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 ‘25, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q1 GDP showed that the Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q , translating into a year-on-year increase of just 2.7% to kick off the year. But with revisions and rebases... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 25) US tariffs will start to weigh on China’s export growth soon. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but it won’t be enough... 29th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s Q1 growth weaker than officials claim Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update No end to Colombia’s fiscal saga in sight The IMF’s decision to pause Colombia’s access to its flexible credit line is not particularly concerning given the country’s robust external position, but the Fund has shone the spotlight back onto... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
