Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan shilling, South Africa’s port deal Kenya’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp earlier this week, to 9.00%, but the extent of further monetary loosening is likely to rest on what happens next with the shilling, which is... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tempering the optimism Market moves over the past fortnight show that investors are becoming more optimistic about the euro-zone economy, but we are less bullish on the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the recent acceleration in... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Does Egypt need the IMF anyway? Oman gets an upgrade Egypt’s IMF review has coincided with a fresh impetus to jumpstart the lagging privatisation programme. But compared to just a couple of years ago, Egypt’s improving balance of payments position and... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest... 9th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo signals further easing in 2026 The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Leadership signals fiscal priorities for 2026 Improving the allocation of fiscal spending, rather than significantly increasing the scale, looks set to be the government's priority going into next year. That's something that's clearly needed –... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s bumper PMI, Saudi Budget, MENA 2026 Outlook November’s batch of PMIs suggest that growth strengthened in the region last month, particularly in Egypt where the survey hit its highest level (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2015... 4th December 2025 · 7 mins read
