India Economics Update Finance Ministry shows restraint as election looms Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated a long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit in the Interim Budget announcement for FY24/25. There is always a... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus only firing on one cylinder Large-scale liquidity injections have had little impact on economic activity recently and the upcoming RRR cut is likely to be no different. Quantitative monetary policy tools are ineffectual in an... 26th January 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Interim Budget As it is a general election year, there will be at least some temptation from within the ruling BJP to announce big fiscal giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25 next week. But following the BJP... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: More room for tax cuts Our new Fiscal Headroom Monitor uses a simplified version of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s model to estimate how changes in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields are influencing... 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default? Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2023) December’s better-than-expected public finances figures brought some cheer for the Chancellor after the recent run of poor outturns and will give him a bit more wiggle room for a big pre-election... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
