China Economics Weekly Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March... 14th March 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook World-beating growth set to continue India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third... 13th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Pre-election boost to turn into post-election drag The net giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may help end the recession before an election later this year. But fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and that... 6th March 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Spring Budget 2024 The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at... 6th March 2024 · 17 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Tuesday with a panoply of speeches and reports. Here’s what to focus on. 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Housing leading the economy out of recession The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
