China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil using sticking plasters as public finances worsen The recent sharp deterioration in Brazil’s public finances has forced Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to outline further fiscal tightening measures, but we doubt that the government will do enough to... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal rules: there to be broken? A growing number of EMs have adopted fiscal rules to improve investor confidence in the management of their public finances. But the recent deterioration in fiscal health in some EMs has led to the... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the UK’s fiscal situation as bad as the Chancellor says? Without wishing to downplay the ugly fiscal picture, we think the new government is overplaying the gloom. We suspect more optimistic economic forecasts and various tweaks to the fiscal rules will... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”... 23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry continues to show fiscal restraint Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has shown a commitment to fiscal consolidation while for the most part placating the BJP’s coalition partners in today’s FY24/25 Union Budget announcement. There is... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, SA investment, SARB to cut soon Nigeria announced plans this week to raise 2024 budget spending again. Funding will come via a windfall tax on bank profits, but more measures will be needed to permanently boost revenues if Nigeria’s... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services-led slowdown, Third Plenum signals The detailed breakdown of Q2’s weaker-than-expected GDP figures point to a broad-based slowdown in almost all parts of the service sector, leaving growth increasingly dependent on industry. The Third... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
