Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s hawkish tilt It may seem odd that we’re still forecasting interest rates to fall from 5.00% now to 4.50% this year and to 3.00% next year when the Bank of England said this week that it doesn't expect to cut rates... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on... 2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has slowed recently but we think it will regain some momentum during the second half... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Investment still the preferred policy lever to pull We wouldn’t take this week’s pledge from the Politburo to tilt stimulus towards consumption at face value. The only concrete measures along these lines that have been announced recently have been more... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it... 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024) The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How will Reeves fill the £22bn spending shortfall? Our best judgement is that in order to fund the increase in spending of £22bn outlined by the Chancellor today, Reeves will raise an additional £10bn a year (0.3% of GDP) via higher taxes and increase... 29th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024) Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy still spending NGEU money too slowly Italy has become quicker at spending NextGenerationEU (NGEU) funds over the past year but it is still likely to spend only around two-thirds of the total funds allocated to it unless the programme is... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
