Why Starmer hasn’t been sunk by the bond market like Truss Alex Kerr, at Capital Economics, estimates that the rise in long-term borrowing costs since the Budget has added another £5.8bn to Rachel Reeves’s annual debt interest spending. 3rd September 2025 · The Telegraph
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: France’s political turmoil and the fragility of global bond markets 9th September 2025, 10:00AM BST François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year.
UK Economics Update Which taxes could (and should) the UK Chancellor raise? If the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is going to continue to meet her fiscal rule with a buffer of £9.9bn, she will probably have to raise £18-28bn in the Autumn Budget, mostly via higher taxes. We... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much will the UK Chancellor need to raise in the Budget? Our latest estimate suggests the Chancellor will need to raise £18-28bn in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules and to maintain her £9.9bn buffer. With Labour MPs not amenable to spending... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Conditions ripe for fiscal crisis, gov’t must not pull the trigger Most of the conditions that have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. The missing factor is a trigger. This means that whatever the Chancellor chooses to do in the Autumn Budget, it’s... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China spurns Nvidia as it plans domestic AI boom Rather than welcoming improved access to Nvidia chips, Chinese officials are discouraging purchases and focusing on boosting domestic chip output. This dovetails with a wider AI+ plan, fleshed out... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Possible UK landlord tax a headwind to supply and tailwind to rents If the Chancellor were to apply National Insurance tax to rental income in the Autumn Budget, it could further restrain the supply of rental properties and push up rents by more than otherwise. 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth picks up, but economy remains weak Our China Activity Proxy shows that China’s economy accelerated last month, with growth picking up across all sectors. Still, the economy remains far weaker than official estimates suggest. We expect... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
