UK Economics Weekly The knowns and unknowns of the new fiscal rule The growing likelihood that the PSNFL measure of debt will form one of the Chancellor's fiscal rules in next Wednesday's Budget theoretically means she could increase borrowing by £73bn (2.3% of GDP)... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pension referendum a risk to Uruguay’s public finances Uruguay's election on Sunday is unlikely to change the path of economic policy but will have big implications for relations with China. Arguably more important than the election itself is the outcome... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2024) While it is too late for September’s disappointing public finances figures to influence the amount of headroom the OBR will hand the Chancellor in the Budget on 30th October, they do highlight the... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises? The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba trying to shore up support ahead of election PM Ishiba has signaled that this year’s supplementary budget will be larger than last year’s. That’s largely motivated by concerns that the LDP won’t do well in next week’s Lower House elections... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel? Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings... 17th October 2024 · 21 mins read
