UK Economics Update

Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s?

The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK...

9th October 2025 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Rare budget surplus within reach

Japan may record a rare budget surplus this year which means that the incoming PM has more fiscal leeway than is generally acknowledged. However, as that improvement won’t be confirmed until late-2026...

9th October 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI...

8th October 2025 · 1 min read

Event

UK Roundtable – What does the Budget mean for the ​economy, housing and financial markets?​

12th November 2025, 9:00AM GMT

Ahead of the Budget on 26 November, our economists discussed the potential impact of the Chancellor’s second Budget in a special in-person roundtable held on Wednesday 12 November.

Europe Economics Focus

The fallout from France’s ongoing political deadlock

The latest political developments in Paris underline that France is heading for some kind of fiscal crisis which in turn means the risk premium on its debt is likely to rise in the coming year or two...

6th October 2025 · 13 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB

The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central...

6th October 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing

Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt...

6th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Another French government falls – what next for its economy and markets?

6th October 2025, 3:00PM BST

The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook.

Europe Economics Update

France’s PM resignation: what next?

The resignation of yet another French prime minister, this time after just 27 days, hammers home how the fractured parliament is making it nearly impossible to pass a budget that reduces the fiscal...

6th October 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan?

We doubt that incoming PM Sanae Takaichi will prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates altogether though her victory makes it less likely that the Bank will hike this year. In fact, any...

6th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria reforms, Ghana and Kenya inflation

President Tinubu used his Independence Day address this week to talk up recent improvements in GDP growth and the balance of payments position. He also celebrated the jump in tax revenue this year...

3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Czech election nears, awaiting a fiscal impulse

The Czech parliamentary election kicks off today, with opposition populist party ANO set to gain the most number of seats. Depending on its actual vote share, the only way it may be able to form a...

3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No sign of China import flood; Italy deficit back at 3%

The latest data show that there is little sign of a flood of cheap Chinese goods hitting the euro-zone as a result of US tariffs. Meanwhile, the new deficit projections released by the Italian...

3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ meeting, Saudi 2026 Budget, MENA’s debt splurge

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to see the group agree to a further unwinding of oil production cuts in November, with some suggestions it could be one of the most aggressive moves yet...

2nd October 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: election could derail recent fiscal progress

Brazil’s government has brought its primary budget more or less back into balance over the past year, which has helped to improve investor confidence and drive a rally in Brazilian bonds. But...

2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read