Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Europe’s populists copy Italy’s fiscal restraint? In principle, the relatively cautious fiscal policy that Giorgia Meloni’s government has followed in Italy offers a model that other right-wing populist parties could follow. But in practice, with the... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Event Drop-In: China Outlook – Can policy reverse economic weakness? 9th October 2025, 9:00AM BST Our proprietary China Activity Proxy shows growth running well below the official figures.
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s good fiscal performance continue? Italy’s public finances have held up better than expected over the past two years or so despite the economy remaining sluggish. That is partly due to policies that pre-date Giorgia Meloni’s government... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Economy to be largely unaffected by shutdown Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with... 1st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite Following the publication of Saudi Arabia's full 2026 Budget today, we have provided this updated analysis Saudi Arabia officially approved its 2026 Budget earlier today and, while the headline... 30th September 2025 (Updated 2nd December 2025) · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Sheinbaum turn Pemex around? President Sheinbaum’s approach to tackling the woes of state oil company Pemex are, encouragingly, more comprehensive than those of her predecessor Amlo. But it seems unlikely that the government will... 30th September 2025 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak economy to prompt more policy support The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the... 29th September 2025 · 13 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI... 29th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
