President Sheinbaum’s approach to tackling the woes of state oil company Pemex are, encouragingly, more comprehensive than those of her predecessor Amlo. But it seems unlikely that the government will be able to stop providing help by 2027, as currently planned. Sheinbaum’s revealed preference appears to be to provide support in the form of guarantees of Pemex’s debts, which would help to keep spreads on Pemex’s dollar bonds vis-à-vis the sovereign compressed. It also means that the company will remain a drag on Mexico’s public finances and the economy more broadly.
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