Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lower spending by National would be a drag Jacinda Ardern’s incumbent Labour party looks set to win a solid victory at New Zealand’s upcoming election. That might keep business confidence subdued, but it probably wouldn’t be as much of a drag... 9th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia’s independence under threat? Proposed changes to Bank Indonesia’s mandate, which include a shift to focus more on growth and unemployment, could lead to major changes in how the central bank operates. However, given the country’s... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What shape will economic policy take post-Abe? Japan will very soon have a new Prime Minister. Close Abe aide Suga Yoshihide is the current front runner in the LDP leadership contest and would likely keep policy firmly on the course set by Mr Abe... 1st September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s limited fiscal space bites, SA banks in spotlight Nigerian government spending proposals for 2021, floated this week, signal just how much of a bind the authorities are in. Letting the naira weaken would be one way to address the large budget deficit... 21st August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal drama, weak regional recovery Fears that Brazil’s economy minister, Paulo Guedes (the linchpin of the government’s reform agenda), might resign have flared up again this week, and we think that there is now a political risk... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July saw the fourth biggest monthly deficit in history behind only the first three months of this fiscal year. A massive increase in debt to over £2 trillion for the first time ever and above 100% of... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal impasse points to political risks for US equities The failure of US legislators to agree a new fiscal support package to tackle the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has so far not made much of a dent in equity markets. But it highlights... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus hangs in the balance A week later, it is still unclear whether President Donald Trump’s executive orders on unemployment benefits and payroll taxes will provide any meaningful fiscal stimulus during the second half of... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
