Japan Chart Pack

Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now

Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far...

17th November 2020 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

What more can policymakers do?

The recent tightening of virus containment measures across the region will push back the economic recovery well into 2021 and means that policy support will need to be stepped up before, as seems...

12th November 2020 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support

The rollout of an effective vaccine in early 2021 would cause us to pull up our growth forecasts for next year, but the boost to GDP in 2022 could be much smaller if the improved near-term outlook...

10th November 2020 · 4 mins read

Long Run Focus

A new era of financial repression

Financial repression – defined in the current context as measures that artificially lower the cost of government borrowing – will become an increasingly used tool to cope with higher public sector...

10th November 2020 · 23 mins read

India Economics Update

More evidence of a woeful fiscal response

The Finance Ministry’s response to the pandemic has been even smaller than we initially thought. Announced stimulus measures were already meagre in size. It now appears that their impact has been...

2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Onus remains on fiscal policy

Developments this week suggest it will take a much greater deterioration of the outlook for the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary support, leaving the onus on Finance Minister Chrystia...

30th October 2020 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint

The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary...

30th October 2020 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may...

30th October 2020 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Fiscal response looks more muscular with tax deferrals

We estimate that firms deferred around ¥17tn in tax and social security contributions during the state of emergency. Most of those deferrals will have to be paid back by mid-2021 but we suspect that...

29th October 2020 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

On the road to recovery

As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we...

29th October 2020 · 11 mins read

Global Markets Update

Brazilian stocks may do well despite fiscal drama

It is looking increasingly likely that the Brazilian government will violate its constitutional spending cap, or at least the spirit of it. While this could lead to some ructions in the real and...

28th October 2020 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa MTBPS: between a rock and a hard place

South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni today fleshed out harsh austerity plans for the next few fiscal years. But the emphasis on spending cuts, including a three-year public wage freeze, will...

28th October 2020 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Fiscal outlook favours US and China over Europe and India

While the COVID crisis has prompted an unprecedented fiscal response worldwide, there have been major differences between economies. The US saw large and immediate support, which has already expired...

27th October 2020 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Asia leading the way

The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin...

23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Economies in need of continued policy support

National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that although many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP last quarter, output remains well below pre-crisis...

23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read