Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Risk of the virus dealing a second blow to the economy A surge in new domestic coronavirus cases is the biggest downside risk to our forecast that it will take two years for the economy to return to its pre-crisis peak. It could mean that the recovery... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A better way to measure the recovery? A new type of recession requires new tools to measure it. It has become clear that the activity PMIs will be of little use in gauging the extent and pace of the recovery from the coronavirus crisis... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Virus case growth rising from low level The renewed rise in Covid-19 case growth is not yet a big cause for concern, but there is clearly a risk that a second wave of infections will cause further economic disruption later this year. 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly IMF increasing funding limits, SA’s economic recovery The IMF’s decision to expand access limits could open the way for African economies to receive more multilateral support, but the Fund clearly wants countries to move to programmes with conditionality... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Key dates to watch as economy’s life support is removed The economy is on life support, but this can’t last forever. This Update highlights the key dates to watch as the policy support is phased out, in particular the end of the furlough scheme on 31st... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia benefit from China’s strong rebound? China’s rapid economic recovery from the Global Financial Crisis did not play as big a role as is commonly assumed in supporting growth in the rest of Asia. We doubt a strong rebound in China from the... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Additional stimulus will be necessary before long Retail sales rose further above its pre-virus level in June. But we think overall consumption is still below its pre-virus level, and the new outbreaks should see retail sales decline in the coming... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The future of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy Saudi Arabia has grown increasingly frustrated with other oil producers’ failure to comply with the OPEC+ oil output cuts and, while we think that the current deal will remain intact for now, the risk... 23rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Soaring public debt unlikely to hold back recovery Today’s fiscal update was a damp squib as the Treasurer didn’t present fiscal forecasts beyond June 2021 and didn’t unveil fresh fiscal support. While the government’s current forecasts are very close... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2, Provisional) Korean GDP shrank sharply in Q2 on the back of the largest drop in exports since 1963, but output probably bottomed out in the middle of the quarter. The recovery, which is already underway, is set to... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tax reform push a step in the right direction The push by Brazil’s government to change the tax system provides a welcome sign that the government’s reform agenda is still progressing, despite the political infighting caused by the handling of... 22nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Jul.) Both the manufacturing and the services PMI only improved a little bit in July which suggests that the recovery from the pandemic will be more protracted than elsewhere. 22nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery Fund another positive step The final agreement on the Recovery Fund was a compromise reached after four days and nights of acrimonious negotiations and is less generous than first proposed. Nonetheless, it marks a historic step... 21st July 2020 · 4 mins read
