Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting suggests that policymakers were in no hurry to increase the size of the PEPP. There has been more disappointing news on the economy since then... 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Recovery to benefit from ongoing fiscal support The rise in cases of COVID-19 and renewed restrictions in some provinces have caused us to trim our forecast for GDP growth in the short term, but the bigger picture is that we are more optimistic... 6th October 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal policy set to remain loose We estimate that the income tax cuts and other stimulus measures unveiled in today’s Budget will provide fiscal support of around 2.5% of GDP in 2021/22. That won’t prevent a major tightening in... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The government borrowed another huge sum of £35.9bn in August as it continued to absorb much of the cost of the COVID-19 crisis. But while the Chancellor announced some modest further support... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, Umrah pilgrimages, Egypt rate cut? Comments from a Saudi official suggest that the government is looking to boost the Kingdom’s economic recovery but, against the backdrop of low oil prices, the scope to row back on austerity plans is... 24th September 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra fiscal support to cushion the blow, but not eliminate it The policy measures announced today by the Chancellor will go some way to cushioning the blow to the economic recovery from the new restrictions to contain COVID-19 and limiting the long-term hit to... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Throne speech latest step toward more activist policy While the government still needs to gain support for its throne speech and then back it up with budgetary action, the array of policy proposals confirms it is ready to take a far more activist... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% came as no surprise, and rates look set to remain unchanged for some time to come. The central bank hinted at further... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Policy stimulus won’t boost inflation in the near term The effects of demand weakness should continue to dominate those of supply constraints, leaving underlying inflation subdued in most parts of the world over the next few years. Policy measures... 21st September 2020 · 14 mins read
