Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The rebound in Polish industrial production and retail sales in June suggests that the contraction in GDP in Q2 may be in the order of 4% y/y, much smaller than the 8-9% y/y we had expected. Activity... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) The smaller rise in public sector borrowing in June compared to May suggests that government support is starting to wind down as the economy reopens. However, government borrowing is still... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as policy priorities shift Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Further rate cuts seem increasingly unlikely as the focus of monetary policy appears to be shifting from stimulating activity to... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) Export volumes were little changed in June but they should rebound soon as many of Japan’s trading partners are on the mend. By contrast, import volumes never fell much despite the slump in domestic... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Focus on near-term and medium-term fiscal plans With the pace of infections rising across most of the country, and the economic recovery in danger of going into reverse, we suspect that Congress will, at least partially, extend the enhanced $600... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia’s dam, South Africa’s fiscal conundrum Tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have ratcheted up over the past week, raising the risk of conflict with Egypt, which would do severe damage to both the country’s near- and long-term... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More fiscal and monetary stimulus to come We doubt that EU leaders reach a final deal on the proposed Recovery Fund at the conference which its taking place today and tomorrow in Brussels, though a deal is likely eventually. In any case, most... 17th July 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly The upside to China’s wary consumers Household consumption in China remained stubbornly weak in Q2 despite the rapid rebound in GDP. But this isn’t a reason to be overly concerned about the immediate outlook. With fiscal stimulus still... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update An uneven recovery, especially within services The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data published today raises some questions about the purported speed of the recovery. Generally though, it is consistent with broader evidence of a sharp... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget update to reveal severe deterioration The government’s Budget update on Thursday is set to reveal a marked deterioration in the fiscal accounts, largely due to huge fiscal support measures. Most of that spending is set to expire in... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers’ actions may boost the euro further this year Failure by EU leaders to approve the Recovery Fund this weekend would probably weigh on the euro in the near term, but we still think that policymakers will eventually reach an agreement and provide... 16th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to remain in dovish mode At the press conference following today’s Governing Council meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde dampened any suggestion that the Bank may not use the full €1.35 trillion in its emergency purchase... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) After a sharp contraction in Q1, the economy bounced back strongly in Q2, with the level of GDP reaching a new high. What’s more, the monthly activity and spending figures show that growth was still... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Industry weighing on Mexico’s economy The struggles in Mexico’s industrial sector suggests that GDP fell by around 20% q/q in Q2. And the weak prospects for the sector will dampen Mexico’s economic recovery over the coming quarters. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Africa’s Covid crisis The number of coronavirus cases has continued to rise sharply in South Africa, making it more likely that the government will tighten containment measures, which would add to reasons to expect a slow... 15th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated and we think it won’t announce major new measures over the coming months. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
