Global Economics Update Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on In general, our Covid Recovery Trackers continued to improve at the end of Q2 and in the first ten days of July. Things are even looking up a bit in Latin America. But the US recovery risks going into... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update OBR’s fiscal warnings can be ignored…for now The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) today sent a clear message to the government that regardless of the speed of the recovery, the government debt to GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path. Even... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) Singapore’s economy contracted by the most on record in Q2, but with many restrictions to economic activity now lifted and strong government support, output is set to rebound over the second half of... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Higher fiscal spending good news for the Bank The government confirmed this week that it is committing a further $58bn to direct spending measures to support the economy, bringing the total direct stimulus to a striking 9.5% of GDP. The... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to take a breather but more support to come We don’t expect any changes to ECB policy next week, but Christine Lagarde is likely to maintain a dovish tone by signalling that policymakers are open to making additional asset purchases and... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Huge deficit but more spending still to come The government confirmed today that it is allocating additional funds to various COVID-19 related programs that will cause the deficit to widen to $343bn this fiscal year, or 16% of GDP. And with... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update More evidence of major fiscal damage After blowing out in April, budget deficits in Latin America remained wide in May. And while a pick-up in economic activity should help tax revenues to recover and social welfare spending to ease over... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing policy support may spur further gains in risky assets We think that there is scope for spreads of investment-grade corporate bonds and euro-zone peripheral government bonds to decline further against the backdrop of a gradually recovering global economy... 8th July 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal support continues, austerity is not even on the horizon The £30bn (1.4% of GDP) of extra measures announced today by the Chancellor may go some way to speeding up the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis and limiting the long-term hit to... 8th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rising unemployment, fiscal damage, USMCA A dig into the recent labour market data shows that the hit has been even worse than the recent surge in headline unemployment rates suggests. With activity only recovering gradually, there will... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly China push back, food handouts ramped up Measures taken by Indian authorities this week suggest that India is decoupling politically but also economically from China and potentially integrating more with Asia’s other democracies or the US... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Further fiscal stimulus to reduce risk of long-term scarring With further fiscal support likely to be unveiled at some point in the next few weeks, the government appears willing to sustain the fiscal stimulus into the years ahead rather than lurch towards... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
