India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal costs of crisis may be greater than OBR predicts With the Office for Budget Responsibility’s government borrowing forecasts only including the cost of just one of the extra four months of the Job Retention Scheme and no medium-term scarring effects... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New fiscal package is less spectacular than it seems Prime Minister Modi’s 10% of GDP support package sounds impressive but the details just announced make clear that it has been bulked out for effect. Extra demand-boosting measures are worth less than... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Overall policy response close in size to the US The federal government’s spending measures are dwarfed by those in the US, and the Bank of Canada’s plans look underwhelming compared to those of the Federal Reserve. But the overall fiscal packages... 13th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households at forefront of austerity drive The austerity measures announced by the Saudi government today reinforce our view that it will rely on fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation to make the adjustment to cheap oil. The measures... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Continued easing, but policy support remains essential Conditions in money markets have continued to ease gradually as central banks have expanded their backstop measures. In our view, extensive support from policymakers will remain a key factor... 6th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Can governments shoulder a higher debt burden? The coronavirus will leave in its wake a sharp rise in public sector debt. Low interest rates suggest that many governments will be able to live with this, rather than having to resort to austerity... 5th May 2020 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in... 30th April 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal rescue to push debt burden close to WWII levels With Congress ramping up its fiscal stimulus rescue package, federal debt will rise above 100% of GDP this year, not far off the record high of 108% of GDP in the aftermath of WWII. That is not a... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal tightening, Algeria woes, remittance slump Comments from Saudi’s finance minister support our view that fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation will be relied on to make the adjustment to low oil prices, which will make the economic... 23rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
