Europe Economics Update EC fiscal plan significant but leaves ECB a lot to do The EC fiscal proposal confirms that Europe’s fiscal response will be large enough to help to ease concerns about how the current crisis will be financed. But the details are yet to be finalised, and... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Large fiscal response should support recovery The large supplementary budget drafted by PM Abe’s Cabinet today lifts fresh government spending in response to the virus to around 8% of GDP. That should provide the platform for a strong recovery in... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Hours worked plunge to 25-year low The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not... 26th May 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Another global wave of austerity seems unlikely Unlike the period after the global financial crisis, we doubt that we will see a widespread trend of austerity to reduce public sector debt ratios. Nonetheless, austerity will still be undertaken in a... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Debt monetisation: are we already there? On the face of it, it might look like major economies have not yet reached the stage of debt monetisation. Where central banks are buying government bonds, it is on the secondary market, is supposed... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) The double whammy of the precipitous fall in economic activity and the government’s measures to combat the crisis has already pushed borrowing to alarmingly high levels. While the small easing of the... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Next wave of fiscal measures to be less impressive Congress will probably agree to another round of fiscal support over the coming weeks, but we doubt that will make a huge difference to the economy, given that it appears set to be an order of... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Inflation not the easy way to cut public debt burdens One of the key consequences of the coronavirus is set to be a sharp rise in government debt burdens. We have already looked at whether governments can just tolerate their rise in debt here. But this... 20th May 2020 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Will government debt be sustainable after the crisis? Public debt ratios are set to rise sharply in all euro-zone countries this year but in most cases they should then start to fall again. The exceptions are Greece and, more importantly, Italy where we... 20th May 2020 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal The €500bn EU joint fiscal package suggested by France and Germany would be a significant move towards fiscal union. However, the benefit to the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Stimulus disappoints amid lockdown extension The final details of the stimulus package reinforce our initial take that, while helpful in limiting downside risks to the economy, it will do little to boost demand in the near term. With the... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Debt lessons from the east The Treasury is reportedly already thinking up ways to reduce public debt in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis in order to maintain investors’ confidence. But other countries with much higher... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway rips up the fiscal rule book Having endured a bruising few months, the risks to the Norwegian krone now appear to be on the upside, not least given that the government plans to spend a greater proportion of the pension fund this... 15th May 2020 · 4 mins read
