Omicron waves in the rear view mirror

Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves compared with previous ones. But the good news will probably be in short supply going forward. Low vaccination rates mean that the region remains vulnerable to future virus waves. What’s more, other headwinds are likely to grow. We expect commodity price moves to turn increasingly unfavourable. And policy support will be thin on the ground with officials pursuing austerity and/or shifting to tighten monetary policy.