Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico set for further easing, early signs of fiscal hit Banxico’s latest Quarterly Report and the minutes to its mid-May meeting suggests that more monetary easing is on the cards. Otherwise, the April fiscal data for Brazil and Argentina show early signs... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EU borrowing plans helpful, but not a panacea The publication of the EC’s blueprint for joint borrowing has been hailed by some as a “Hamilton moment”, referring to the 1790 decision by the first US Treasury Secretary to take on the debt of the... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit to surge despite smaller JobKeeper bill The massive error in calculating the cost of the JobKeeper wage subsidy means the budget deficit will be smaller by nearly 2% of GDP in both the current and the coming financial year. It seems... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update EC fiscal proposal provides the SNB some respite The prospect of a joint European fiscal response has helped to ease upward pressure on the Swiss franc and means that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the SNB following its recent bout of... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC fiscal plan significant but leaves ECB a lot to do The EC fiscal proposal confirms that Europe’s fiscal response will be large enough to help to ease concerns about how the current crisis will be financed. But the details are yet to be finalised, and... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Large fiscal response should support recovery The large supplementary budget drafted by PM Abe’s Cabinet today lifts fresh government spending in response to the virus to around 8% of GDP. That should provide the platform for a strong recovery in... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Hours worked plunge to 25-year low The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not... 26th May 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Another global wave of austerity seems unlikely Unlike the period after the global financial crisis, we doubt that we will see a widespread trend of austerity to reduce public sector debt ratios. Nonetheless, austerity will still be undertaken in a... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Debt monetisation: are we already there? On the face of it, it might look like major economies have not yet reached the stage of debt monetisation. Where central banks are buying government bonds, it is on the secondary market, is supposed... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) The double whammy of the precipitous fall in economic activity and the government’s measures to combat the crisis has already pushed borrowing to alarmingly high levels. While the small easing of the... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Next wave of fiscal measures to be less impressive Congress will probably agree to another round of fiscal support over the coming weeks, but we doubt that will make a huge difference to the economy, given that it appears set to be an order of... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Inflation not the easy way to cut public debt burdens One of the key consequences of the coronavirus is set to be a sharp rise in government debt burdens. We have already looked at whether governments can just tolerate their rise in debt here. But this... 20th May 2020 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Will government debt be sustainable after the crisis? Public debt ratios are set to rise sharply in all euro-zone countries this year but in most cases they should then start to fall again. The exceptions are Greece and, more importantly, Italy where we... 20th May 2020 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
