Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry needs to throw caution to the wind The Finance Ministry’s response to the coronavirus so far has been tepid and, unless it steps up, it risks turning the public health crisis into a humanitarian and banking crisis. We assume it will do... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Only modest fiscal support as lockdowns loom The government today laid the groundwork for lockdowns in prefectures that generate nearly half of Japan’s economic output. The accompanying fiscal package has some impressive headline numbers... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Fiscal support already too late for many The federal and provincial governments have now announced fiscal packages worth a total of 13% of GDP. The speed and magnitude of the response is encouraging, but there are signs the government is... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Government schemes falling down in practice Despite policymakers’ best efforts, it is looking more likely that the unemployment rate and businesses insolvencies could rise as high as in the Global Financial Crisis. 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update Universal Credit claims point to unemployment leap Reports of a further leap in new claims for Universal Credit suggest that the government support designed to keep people employed isn’t working and that the unemployment rate could jump from 3.9% in... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Are Latin American policymakers doing enough? Policymakers in Peru and Chile have been quick to introduce economic policy and containment measures in response to the coronavirus, but peers elsewhere – particularly in Brazil and Mexico – have made... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Explosion in gov’t borrowing won’t push up gilt yields We doubt that the coming explosion in government borrowing or the accompanying rise in government debt will push up gilt yields. Low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates mean that they gilt... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS reaching limits of monetary policy The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today by reducing the slope of its policy band, and even though the outlook for growth and inflation is very downbeat, we don’t expect further... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers do their utmost, but some damage already done The UK Chancellor’s support for self-employed workers takes the total size of the government’s package of direct tax and spending measures to £119bn (5.3% of GDP). Even so, this unparalleled policy... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry will need to do more The Finance Ministry took its first shot at responding to the coronavirus outbreak yesterday but, at only 0.7% of GDP, the fiscal stimulus measures are small. Much more will be needed to prevent a... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Easing funding strains are a sign of progress The renewed weakening of the US dollar over recent days suggests that policymakers’ efforts to ease strains in short-term funding markets are having an effect. 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
