Europe Economics Focus Has the euro-zone done enough to avoid a debt crisis? The EU’s moves towards an unprecedented joint fiscal stimulus and the ECB’s commitment to buy unlimited amounts of government debt have greatly reduced the risk of a euro-zone debt crisis in the... 15th June 2020 · 23 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Brace yourself for two boring policy meetings The Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank are all but certain to leave their policy settings unchanged at the scheduled announcements next Thursday (18th June) and for the foreseeable future. 11th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government to live with debt rather than lurch towards austerity Unlike the period after the Global Financial Crisis, we doubt that the government will immediately turn to a prolonged period of austerity after the surge in the debt to GDP ratio during the... 10th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal package, Ukrainians leaving Poland The three-step stimulus plan unveiled this week by Russia’s government comes late in the day. But it does suggest that policymakers are serious about the shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity still depressed, policymakers step up support Data published this week added to evidence that economic activity in the euro-zone is slowly resuming after a catastrophic April, but that it remains well below “normal” levels. Against this backdrop... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Policymakers getting their act together The latest high frequency data show that economic activity has picked up a bit in the past few weeks. Consumers have been returning to the shops and restaurants. But some sectors such as tourism and... 5th June 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s fiscal position no longer a source of comfort Turkey’s public finances remain in good shape compared with most other EMs but they have deteriorated in recent years and are no longer the pillar of strength that they once were. The debt-to-GDP... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What primary balances are needed to stabilise debt ratios? Public sector debt to GDP ratios are going to rise sharply and, in most cases, governments can tolerate this. But to retain the faith of financial markets, they might still need to make sure that debt... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending The government has said it will delay the Budget Update until July so it can reassess the eligibility of the JobKeeper scheme. Reducing the payments for part-time workers could save the government... 5th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Policy support likely to keep risky assets on top “Risky” assets have comfortably outperformed “safe” ones over the past month, even as evidence of the scale of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak has continued to mount. We suspect... 4th June 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Focus Another decade of ultra-loose monetary policy The swift and significant response of the Bank of England to the coronavirus crisis has prevented a financial crisis, but we think the Bank will need to do much more than the markets currently expect... 4th June 2020 · 31 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How will policymakers rein in soaring public debt? Australia’s gross government debt/GDP ratio will hit the highest level since WWII by 2022/23. While the budget deficit will narrow again over the coming years as tax revenues rebound and stimulus... 1st June 2020 · 17 mins read
