Europe Economics Update What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal The €500bn EU joint fiscal package suggested by France and Germany would be a significant move towards fiscal union. However, the benefit to the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Stimulus disappoints amid lockdown extension The final details of the stimulus package reinforce our initial take that, while helpful in limiting downside risks to the economy, it will do little to boost demand in the near term. With the... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Debt lessons from the east The Treasury is reportedly already thinking up ways to reduce public debt in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis in order to maintain investors’ confidence. But other countries with much higher... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway rips up the fiscal rule book Having endured a bruising few months, the risks to the Norwegian krone now appear to be on the upside, not least given that the government plans to spend a greater proportion of the pension fund this... 15th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal costs of crisis may be greater than OBR predicts With the Office for Budget Responsibility’s government borrowing forecasts only including the cost of just one of the extra four months of the Job Retention Scheme and no medium-term scarring effects... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New fiscal package is less spectacular than it seems Prime Minister Modi’s 10% of GDP support package sounds impressive but the details just announced make clear that it has been bulked out for effect. Extra demand-boosting measures are worth less than... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Overall policy response close in size to the US The federal government’s spending measures are dwarfed by those in the US, and the Bank of Canada’s plans look underwhelming compared to those of the Federal Reserve. But the overall fiscal packages... 13th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households at forefront of austerity drive The austerity measures announced by the Saudi government today reinforce our view that it will rely on fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation to make the adjustment to cheap oil. The measures... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Continued easing, but policy support remains essential Conditions in money markets have continued to ease gradually as central banks have expanded their backstop measures. In our view, extensive support from policymakers will remain a key factor... 6th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Can governments shoulder a higher debt burden? The coronavirus will leave in its wake a sharp rise in public sector debt. Low interest rates suggest that many governments will be able to live with this, rather than having to resort to austerity... 5th May 2020 · 23 mins read
