Europe Economics Weekly Monetary policy still doing the heavy lifting Evidence has continued to mount this week that the slump in activity in much of the euro-zone has been unprecedented. Meanwhile, disagreements between finance ministers were on display again, leaving... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lifeline for Bank Indonesia, more stimulus on the way With the rupiah recovering strongly over the past week, we think Bank Indonesia will lower interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, more countries have unveiled fiscal stimulus and support... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: QE won’t negate need for more fiscal stimulus The Bank of Korea’ (BoK) left rates on hold at 0.75% today and announced plans to purchase government bonds. There is scope for quantitative easing to have an impact, but there are limits to how... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy pushing new limits What a difference a month makes. At the time of our last Global Central Bank Watch, monetary policymakers in advanced economies had taken a cautious but relatively sanguine attitude to the coronavirus... 8th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry needs to throw caution to the wind The Finance Ministry’s response to the coronavirus so far has been tepid and, unless it steps up, it risks turning the public health crisis into a humanitarian and banking crisis. We assume it will do... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Only modest fiscal support as lockdowns loom The government today laid the groundwork for lockdowns in prefectures that generate nearly half of Japan’s economic output. The accompanying fiscal package has some impressive headline numbers... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Fiscal support already too late for many The federal and provincial governments have now announced fiscal packages worth a total of 13% of GDP. The speed and magnitude of the response is encouraging, but there are signs the government is... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Government schemes falling down in practice Despite policymakers’ best efforts, it is looking more likely that the unemployment rate and businesses insolvencies could rise as high as in the Global Financial Crisis. 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update Universal Credit claims point to unemployment leap Reports of a further leap in new claims for Universal Credit suggest that the government support designed to keep people employed isn’t working and that the unemployment rate could jump from 3.9% in... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Are Latin American policymakers doing enough? Policymakers in Peru and Chile have been quick to introduce economic policy and containment measures in response to the coronavirus, but peers elsewhere – particularly in Brazil and Mexico – have made... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Explosion in gov’t borrowing won’t push up gilt yields We doubt that the coming explosion in government borrowing or the accompanying rise in government debt will push up gilt yields. Low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates mean that they gilt... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS reaching limits of monetary policy The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today by reducing the slope of its policy band, and even though the outlook for growth and inflation is very downbeat, we don’t expect further... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
