Europe Economics Update EU rescue fund no match for Hamilton’s handiwork While the proposed joint EU fiscal response has been hailed by some as a “Hamilton moment”, the central budget will be just one-quarter as large as a share of GDP as US federal firepower was in the... 29th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal paths, Brazil’s uneven recovery, Argentine GDP Latin American governments have started to outline the direction of fiscal policy from 2021, which support our relatively upbeat view on the prospects for Chile’s recovery. While parts of Brazil’s... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly NZ activity back to normal, but labour market is not As New Zealand has almost entirely eliminated the virus, domestic restrictions have been eased which has allowed activity and consumption to return to normal levels. We have therefore raised our GDP... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s debt woes tie policymakers’ hands South Africa’s emergency budget highlighted that the dire state of the public finances is limiting the scope for fiscal support this year and attention is already focused on dealing with the legacy of... 24th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Revised forecasts; policy stasis; football is back! Amid increasing signs that the Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis better than most we have upgraded our forecasts for GDP growth, and expect some clear daylight between growth in Sweden... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) The double whammy of the precipitous fall in economic activity and the government’s measures to combat the crisis has already pushed the debt to GDP ratio above 100% for the first time in over 50... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Returns from gilts likely to be paltry even if policy remains loose Gilt yields have risen slightly today, but we doubt that they will climb much further, given we expect the Bank of England to keep policy ultra-loose for many years. However, since we also doubt the... 18th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Peru? Peru’s economy appears to be suffering one of the largest economic hits of any country from the coronavirus, which is likely to spur further policy easing. With short-term interest rates essentially... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Huge CERB payouts point to stronger recovery The Canada Emergency Response Benefit has paid out far more than we expected and household income was probably broadly unchanged in the second quarter. Together with the confirmation today that the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is the end of the $600 UI payments a major risk? The potential expiry of the expanded $600 weekly unemployment insurance payments at the end of July could weigh on consumption. But those payments look more likely to see at least a partial extension... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro-zone done enough to avoid a debt crisis? The EU’s moves towards an unprecedented joint fiscal stimulus and the ECB’s commitment to buy unlimited amounts of government debt have greatly reduced the risk of a euro-zone debt crisis in the... 15th June 2020 · 23 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Brace yourself for two boring policy meetings The Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank are all but certain to leave their policy settings unchanged at the scheduled announcements next Thursday (18th June) and for the foreseeable future. 11th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government to live with debt rather than lurch towards austerity Unlike the period after the Global Financial Crisis, we doubt that the government will immediately turn to a prolonged period of austerity after the surge in the debt to GDP ratio during the... 10th June 2020 · 5 mins read
