Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The government borrowed another huge sum of £35.9bn in August as it continued to absorb much of the cost of the COVID-19 crisis. But while the Chancellor announced some modest further support... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, Umrah pilgrimages, Egypt rate cut? Comments from a Saudi official suggest that the government is looking to boost the Kingdom’s economic recovery but, against the backdrop of low oil prices, the scope to row back on austerity plans is... 24th September 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra fiscal support to cushion the blow, but not eliminate it The policy measures announced today by the Chancellor will go some way to cushioning the blow to the economic recovery from the new restrictions to contain COVID-19 and limiting the long-term hit to... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Throne speech latest step toward more activist policy While the government still needs to gain support for its throne speech and then back it up with budgetary action, the array of policy proposals confirms it is ready to take a far more activist... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% came as no surprise, and rates look set to remain unchanged for some time to come. The central bank hinted at further... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Policy stimulus won’t boost inflation in the near term The effects of demand weakness should continue to dominate those of supply constraints, leaving underlying inflation subdued in most parts of the world over the next few years. Policy measures... 21st September 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Boost from fiscal support yet to be fully felt The government has issued ¥95tn in government securities since the start of the current fiscal year in April, equivalent to a huge 17% of pre-virus GDP. It intends to issue another ¥35tn by March... 17th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep policy settings unchanged today didn’t come as a surprise and we don’t expect incoming PM Suga to push the Bank into policy rate cuts. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at its meeting on Wednesday 23 rd September. Even so, the economy... 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to keep policy settings on hold next week After a tweak-laden last policy meeting, the Riksbank is likely to maintain the status quo next Tuesday (22nd September). While there is no burning platform for policy change, we think that the next... 15th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Layoffs back at pre-pandemic levels; fiscal talks stalled The July Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released this week suggests the labour market is in much better health than the downbeat jobless claims figures imply. 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price fall and Gulf fiscal strains, tourism reopening The fall in the price of oil this week has put further pressure on fiscal positions in the Gulf, and most governments are likely to run large budget deficits over the rest of this year. For now... 10th September 2020 · 5 mins read