India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Long Run Focus The role of the state in the post-pandemic world The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic... 13th October 2020 · 23 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily How post-election fiscal stimulus might affect US equities Investors’ recent fixation on the US election and the effect it might have on the shape of future fiscal stimulus suggests that markets would react positively to a Democratic clean sweep. But whilst... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly IMF visits, fiscal space & protests It looks like the Mexican government will ignore the IMF’s advice this week that it should ramp up spending, adding to reasons to expect a weak recovery there. Brazil’s government, in contrast... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus now, monetary stimulus in November This week’s Australian Budget injected another huge dose of fiscal stimulus. Some of the measures may not be quite as effective as those in earlier rounds of stimulus but taken together Australia’s... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overtaken on fiscal support Japan hasn’t announced any new fiscal support measures since May. As a result, the fiscal response – while colossal in normal circumstances – is starting to look small in comparison to elsewhere... 9th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting suggests that policymakers were in no hurry to increase the size of the PEPP. There has been more disappointing news on the economy since then... 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Recovery to benefit from ongoing fiscal support The rise in cases of COVID-19 and renewed restrictions in some provinces have caused us to trim our forecast for GDP growth in the short term, but the bigger picture is that we are more optimistic... 6th October 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal policy set to remain loose We estimate that the income tax cuts and other stimulus measures unveiled in today’s Budget will provide fiscal support of around 2.5% of GDP in 2021/22. That won’t prevent a major tightening in... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
