China Economics Weekly Investors reassess state support Investors had previously shrugged off governance problems at Huarong, China’s largest distressed debt manager. The assumption had always been that the firm’s ties to the Ministry of Finance would... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which... 15th April 2021 · 16 mins read
US Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to drive strong recovery The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if... 14th April 2021 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: looser fiscal policy in store, but no splurge The resilience of tax receipts and the improved outlook for oil and gas revenues should provide scope for Russia’s government to soften its grip on the public finances and ease policy over the next... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Biden’s tax reforms: further fuel for the rotation trade? If enacted, President Joe Biden’s corporate tax reforms could become a significant drag on US equities and hit the earnings of technology, pharmaceuticals and biotech companies particularly hard... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long, winding road to an infrastructure deal The news that a new interpretation of Senate rules would allow Democrats to pass a second reconciliation bill this fiscal year has the potential to be a gamechanger, but we expect moderate Senate... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccinations and policy stimulus to drive recovery The third wave of COVID-19 means that the restrictions on activity will be in place for longer than we assumed, but the economy is poised to recover strongly once vaccinations reach a critical mass... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily India’s monetary policy, bond yields and the rupee We think investors are still overestimating the chances of a significant tightening of Indian monetary policy, and that this will help keep a lid on the country’s long-term bond yields and put some... 7th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA monetary policy going its own way, naira to and fro South Africa’s monetary policy stance is likely to remain accommodative for some time, going against market expectations and the projection model of the Reserve Bank. In Nigeria, officials continued... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman and Bahrain fiscal woes, Egypt SMEs, Suez Canal Bahrain and Oman appear to be taking contrasting approaches to fiscal austerity but, in both cases, we think that further assistance from the rest of Gulf will be needed to keep dollar pegs intact... 25th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's public finances on the right track Despite the recent rise in bond yields, we think that Egypt’s public debt ratio will resume its downward trend in the coming years. 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening, The acrimonious meeting in Alaska underlines that a new US administration has not led to a reset of US-China relations. China’s leadership has long appeared set on a course for industrial decoupling... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal policy: the good, the bad and the ugly Nigeria’s budget deficit is set to narrow sharply this year as oil revenues increase and the government fails to meet ambitious capital spending plans. The shortfall should be easily covered by... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Tunisia heading for a debt restructuring Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated further during the COVID-19 crisis and, with the government unlikely to be able to push through much-needed fiscal austerity, a debt restructuring looks... 18th March 2021 · 16 mins read
