Japan Economics Weekly Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal response looks more muscular with tax deferrals We estimate that firms deferred around ¥17tn in tax and social security contributions during the state of emergency. Most of those deferrals will have to be paid back by mid-2021 but we suspect that... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazilian stocks may do well despite fiscal drama It is looking increasingly likely that the Brazilian government will violate its constitutional spending cap, or at least the spirit of it. While this could lead to some ructions in the real and... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa MTBPS: between a rock and a hard place South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni today fleshed out harsh austerity plans for the next few fiscal years. But the emphasis on spending cuts, including a three-year public wage freeze, will... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Fiscal outlook favours US and China over Europe and India While the COVID crisis has prompted an unprecedented fiscal response worldwide, there have been major differences between economies. The US saw large and immediate support, which has already expired... 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Economies in need of continued policy support National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that although many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP last quarter, output remains well below pre-crisis... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA QE to involve volume rather than yield target The minutes of the latest meeting all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting in November. While we previously argued that the RBA... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
US Economics Update ‘Blue wave’ wouldn’t guarantee quick fiscal stimulus While the chances of a pre-election fiscal deal remain slim, markets appear to believe that a Democratic clean sweep of next month’s elections would result in a major post-election stimulus package... 21st October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh fiscal support likely as capital spending weakens The fiscal support provided by Japan’s government had started to look small compared to other large economies but PM Suga this week hinted that more spending is forthcoming. While the government has... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
