India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today but committed to keeping policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. We no longer expect any more rate cuts, but markets are... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taper talk a prelude to bigger policy debate Talk of tapering in recent weeks has been premature and we suspect that most major central banks will keep up asset purchases at their current pace for the rest of the year. Assuming that tapering... 4th February 2021 · 15 mins read
India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Jan.) India’s PMI readings for January suggest that the economy is still rebounding and, with fiscal policy finally being loosened significantly, a decent recovery over the coming quarters looks a stronger... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect loose monetary policy to keep a lid on bond yields The RBA’s decision earlier today to extend its bond purchases, despite considerable improvement in the economic outlook, is just the latest sign that major central banks are likely to take a much more... 2nd February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update A more credible Union Budget By bringing large off-balance sheet expenditures back into official spending plans and setting more realistic targets for revenues, the Finance Ministry has presented a more credible Union Budget for... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update At last, the Finance Ministry breaks the shackles India’s Finance Ministry set aside the desire for near-term fiscal consolidation and today announced significant stimulus in the FY21/222 union budget. That should support the economic recovery over... 1st February 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Different IMF takes on fiscal policy, Nigeria’s funding gap The IMF’s campaign encouraging governments to broaden fiscal support to prop up recoveries does not seem to extend far and wide. While the Fund appears to be backing a pause in Kenya’s fiscal... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued A rush to meet annual spending targets pushed China’s quarterly budget deficit to the second largest on record at the end of 2020. But the government has now turned off the taps. Local government bond... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry’s balancing act, RBI’s opportunity For India watchers, next week will be one of the most important of the year. We think the Finance Ministry will attempt to demonstrate prudence in the Union Budget on Monday, though obfuscation of the... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal policy cocktails of 2021 Governments across Sub-Saharan Africa seem to have mixed plans for fiscal policy this year. There are signs that policymakers in some countries – including Nigeria, Ghana and perhaps Kenya – will... 28th January 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal willingness to accommodate fiscal boost Incoming President Job Biden signed a flurry of executive orders during his first couple of days in office, but it remains to be seen whether the divided Senate will support his broader agenda... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Premature end of fiscal support a risk to the recovery The main risks to the outlook for emerging markets this year relate to virus developments and vaccine rollout. The more traditional macro risks are smaller, but one going under the radar in a few... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
