BoE Watch Rates on hold for a long time yet With November’s Inflation Report indicating favourable prospects for growth and inflation, there is little reason for the MPC to change course on policy. And while unemployment may be falling more... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for most of 2014 Following the Colombian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold on Friday, we think that the Colombian economy will have to deteriorate significantly to trigger additional rate cuts... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Cutting the IOER rate would be too risky Cutting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may seem like a simple way for the Fed to signal its intent to leave short rates at near-zero for several more years, at the same time as it begins... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities rebound, bond yields surge China’s stock market rebounded strongly in the second half of November, as the comprehensive reform plan released following the Plenum seems to have eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is inflation targeting dead? Recent changes in the conduct of monetary policy have prompted some to argue that the era of inflation targeting is passing. Some central banks have put more emphasis on the labour market than was... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Time to talk about the euro? Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic to remain in double-digits for foreseeable future The slight alteration to the Brazilian monetary policy committee’s (COPOM) statement suggests that we are now nearing the end of the current tightening cycle. But while there are unlikely to be... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines economy in good shape before Typhoon Haiyan Figures released today show that the Philippines economy was in good shape before Typhoon Haiyan hit the country at the start of the month. In the short-term, growth is likely to slow, but the economy... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to pause before signalling policy easing Following the downgrading of its economic outlook and dropped tightening bias, the recent economic data have been just about strong enough to allow the Bank of Canada to stand pat at next week's... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana set to tighten monetary policy next year The Central Bank of Ghana kept interest rates on hold today, but the tepid pace of fiscal consolidation and a weakening currency mean that monetary policy is likely to be tightened over the coming... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s rate cut may invite currency weakness In a surprise move, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% today. With the economy still in a fragile state, we expect rates to be kept low to support the economy through... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan likely to keep its inflation target With even some members of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board expecting inflation to remain well below the 2% target in FY 2015, there is growing speculation about how and when the Board will respond to... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further modest rate cuts in Hungary may be on the cards Today's cut in Hungarian interest rates is likely to be followed up by one more cut next month, which we currently think will mark the end of the easing cycle. However, the recent sharp fall in... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly OECD's call for higher interest rates misplaced The OECD's suggestion that the Bank of Canada may need to raise interest rates soon is misplaced for two reasons. First, it underestimates the amount of monetary policy stimulus that will be needed to... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed looking to change the mix rather than stance of policy The Fed is clearly looking to offset the market impact from any decision to wind down its asset purchases by strengthening its commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero for several more years... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s hands are tied The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today but gave its clearest indication yet that the next move in interest rates will be up. The renewed slump in economic growth means that the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
