Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate cut a symbolic move Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its overnight lending rate – which forms the upper bound of its “interest rate corridor” – is a largely symbolic move that is most likely... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to rock the boat again so soon After the launch of QE3 and the strengthening of its forward-looking guidance at the last meeting in mid-September, we don't anticipate any major changes from the Fed at next week's two-day FOMC... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) A sustained pick-up in bank lending helped support broad money growth in September, although the rate of expansion remains subdued. Household borrowing continues to be the main driver of bank lending... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand likely to loosen monetary policy again The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its repo rate by 25bp to 2.75% today. We think persistent global weakness will prompt the central bank to loosen its policy settings further. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) & Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) October’s MPC minutes showed that the Committee is split over whether to do more quantitative easing (QE) once the current round of asset purchases are completed in the next couple of weeks. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Hawkish bias likely to be scratched early next year We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its tightening bias in next week's policy statement. With the euro-zone taking a temporary step back from the brink and US consumers spending more freely, the... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the annual growth rates of the slightly narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed in recent months, the growth rate of our broader M3 measure has accelerated. Moreover, there is a good... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What will the MPC do as its gilts mature? At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to loosen monetary policy next year The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its policy settings unchanged on Friday, as inflation fears outweighed concerns over growth. However, we think inflation worries will dissipate over the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru keeps rates on hold as currency concerns resurface The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept interest rates at 4.25% last night and is unlikely to make any changes to its benchmark rate until well into 2013. Concerns about the strength of the... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy stimulus on the way in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% today, as expected. Growth has slowed sharply and is unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon. With inflation set to remain low, there is... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Spain still dragging its heels? Spain’s delay in applying for a bail-out and hence triggering the ECB’s new bond buying plan probably reflects both political and financial considerations. But it can’t hold out for much longer. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates on hold to 2014 Last night’s decision to cut Brazilian interest rates by 25bps to a new record low of 7.25% probably marks the end of the current easing cycle. But while most forecasters now expect the authorities to... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does the ECB have a strong case for buying Spanish bonds? If Spain applied to the EFSF/ESM for a (partial) sovereign bail-out, the path would become clear for the ECB to buy Spanish government bonds under its Outright Monetary Transmissions (OMT) programme... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deal needed to stop the rot in Egypt Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in September highlight the importance of an IMF backstop when talks take place at the end of this month. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan’s central bank aiming to rekindle investment In a bid to revive investment, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate for the second successive meeting on Friday. The SBP is likely to loosen monetary policy further, even at the risk... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
