UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder the recovery? Provided that low inflation allows monetary policy to remain very loose for some time yet and a further sharp rise in the pound can be avoided, policy should not be major hindrance to the economic... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian growth unlikely to accelerate further Indonesia's economy accelerated slightly in Q4, but growth was still below 6% for the third consecutive quarter. With monetary policy set to remain tight, inflation eating into consumers’ purchasing... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will deflation be the next stage of the crisis? The IMF’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, recently suggested that deflation is still a major risk for the world economy. Since her speech, there has been a sharp drop in equity prices... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s easing cycle appears to have come to an end Following today’s decision to lower Romanian interest rates, Governor Isarescu hinted that the rate cutting cycle may now have come to an end. Policymakers seem to have become concerned that they can... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Who is next in line to hike interest rates? Following the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hike interest rates last week in response to the recent turmoil in EM financial markets, Ghana looks set to be the next country in the region to... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia holds rates and takes cuts off the agenda The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, as expected. Moreover, it strongly suggested that it is does not expect to change policy in the foreseeable future. For now... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch RIP forward guidance? With the unemployment rate likely to fall below 7% soon, February’s MPC meeting will set the scene for the demise of forward guidance, at least in its current form. Comments by MPC members suggest... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa tightens policy, others may soon follow suit The South African Reserve Bank responded to the turmoil in EM currency markets by unexpectedly hiking interest rates this month. Rates were raised by 50bp to 5.50% and, looking ahead, we think policy... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB needs to follow words with action With the strong euro maintaining the risk of deflation in the euro-zone and inter-bank interest rates edging higher, the ECB’s Governing Council will need to follow up President Mario Draghi’s dovish... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Russia become the next EM to come under fire? The sharp sell-off in the ruble over the past week has led some to question whether Russia could be the next EM in line to hike interest rates. For now, we suspect that the Central Bank will stick to... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the SARB’s surprise The dust is still settling on the SARB’s unexpected decision to hike interest rates yesterday, with the rand strengthening slightly against the US$ so far today. Nevertheless, the currency is still... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will market turmoil trigger interest rate hikes? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike is imminent The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, but it made clear in its statement that it will be raising rates soon. As long as data releases continue to show... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues gradual QE taper Despite last minute suggestions from some commentators that the emerging markets wobble could prompt a delay, the Fed opted to continue the gradual winding down of its asset purchases today, reducing... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: surprise rate hike fails to shore up the rand The South African Reserve Bank became the latest EM central bank to respond to the turmoil in currency markets by hiking interest rates today. However, if the decision to tighten was aimed at shoring... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
