Asia Economics Update Australia's central bank likely to cut again The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 3.0% today. We expect the RBA to cut again in early 2013 to support the economy through a cooling of the mining boom. 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate today for the ninth time this year but, with inflation ticking up and the shilling having depreciated in recent weeks, we think the rate cutting... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative bank rates won’t depress the Swiss franc for long Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Door still open to more QE Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to halt its quantitative easing (QE) programme in November, it has since turned out that policy is just being loosened in another way, namely via the... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly In what direction will Mr Carney take the Bank? Attention has quickly turned to what impact Mark Carney’s appointment as Governor of the Bank of England is likely to have on monetary policy. We are not convinced by arguments that he has... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still standing ready Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The broad money supply is continuing to grow at a decent pace. But there are question marks over whether that will last now that the MPC has paused its quantitative easing (QE) programme and whether... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank remains in dovish mood The decision by Brazil’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 7.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement supports our view that they will remain at their current... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle on shaky ground The improvement in global risk appetite has provided Hungary’s National Bank with the scope to loosen policy. But persistent financial vulnerabilities mean that, without an IMF deal in place, the Bank... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Carney's departure bad timing for Canada Mark Carney's surprise decision to accept the head job at the Bank of England, after explicitly telling everyone he was not interested, adds to an already uncertain outlook for Canada. Moreover, it... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Governor Carney will face new challenges Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is well-qualified to manage the Bank of England’s expanded role when he takes over from Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian easing cycle not yet over Colombian interest rates will probably fall further next year as external headwinds cause GDP growth to slow. By contrast, a weaker global economy could be helpful for Peru, where the latest economic... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly All change at the Bank of Japan? We think that the markets would be wrong to expect major changes in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stance after the Lower House elections in December. For a start, it is not certain that the LDP will... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, easing to come next year The South African Reserve Bank kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, but the prospect of subdued growth and easing inflation suggests that a rate cut is likely in 2013. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
