Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India to continue resisting rate cut pressure The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate unchanged today in the face of government pressure on it to cut. With inflation likely to remain high, we suspect the RBI will continue to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts in Colombia dependent upon global weakening The Colombian central bank (BANREP) appears to have signalled that further interest rates cuts are contingent upon a deterioration in the global environment. We think that a deepening of the euro-zone... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The acceleration in the MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth supports the picture from the recent GDP figures that there has been an underlying improvement in the economy. This could help to... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly King rules out more unconventional steps In his speech last week, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King left the door open to more quantitative easing, but appeared to rule out any steps towards more unconventional policy measures, including... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate cuts likely in the Philippines next year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut its key policy rate by 25bp today, as expected. The benign outlook for inflation and worries over growth prospects were the main factors behind the... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Nominal GDP target not a silver bullet The idea of nominal GDP targeting is gaining ground in academic circles as an alternative way for policymakers to boost the struggling economy when interest rates are close to zero. The case for a... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still overly optimistic on outlook The Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents an overly optimistic outlook for Canada's economy. While weak foreign demand restrains Canada's exports, flagging domestic business confidence... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a helicopter drop the answer? A so-called “helicopter drop” of money is generally seen as the nuclear option which will boost the economy if all else fails. However, it is not necessarily the radical step that it might seem. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Ind. Survey (Oct./Q4) & Mervyn King's Speech Today’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey for October and Q4 brought more gloomy news on the state of demand for manufactured goods. Meanwhile, Mervyn King left the door open to more quantitative easing in... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch New forecasts won’t prompt further asset purchases The main purpose of the Bank of Japan’s PolicyBoard meeting next Tuesday (30th) is for it toupdate its forecasts for GDP and inflation.Historically, policy setting has taken a backseat inthe second... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada hawkish bias targets households The Bank of Canada is still saying that its policy rate will need to rise from the current 1%, but there appears to have been a shift in its reasoning for maintaining the tightening bias. Given the... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to remain on hold for a few months yet Chilean policymakers kept interest rates on hold last night amid growing concerns over the strength of the peso. The resilience of domestic demand means that rates should stay unchanged in the near... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency concerns keep Egyptian rates on hold Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today as concerns over the fragile external funding position continue to outweigh the need to stimulate an ailing economy. 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
