Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia shifts tone The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to keep interests rates on hold at 8.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle yet important shift in tone, with policymakers now... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much scope do emerging markets have to loosen policy? Despite recent policy easing by the US Fed and the ECB, we expect global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years. Against this gloomy background, prospects for emerging... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB plays its cards close to its chest President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s determination to preserve the single currency at today’s interest rate press conference, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty surrounding how the... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling inflation lays the ground for more QE The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was predictable given the absence of any major economic surprises in recent weeks. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced in November... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update QE3: big risk or damp squib? There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait rate cut unlikely to boost economic growth Today’s cut in Kuwait’s benchmark interest rate will do little to boost output growth. Instead, the economy is in desperate need of political stability and progress on the government’s development... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC waiting for further evidence before easing The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave interest rates on hold today suggests that policymakers want to see further evidence of a slowdown in the economy before easing policy. We doubt... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pace of monetary easing to slow in Uganda The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while the easing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia finished cutting rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% today. We think this will mark the end of its loosening cycle, with rates set to remain on hold until late 2013. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does Canada's new GDP methodology mean? Changes to Canada's quarterly national accounts methodology have resulted in a higher level of GDP. These important changes, however, have not significantly affected GDP growth and does not change our... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.12) On the face of it, the pick-up in the MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth supports the Committee’s view that its asset purchases are still having a significant impact on the economy. But... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates have further to fall in Colombia The Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) decision to keep interest rates on hold does not necessarily signal the end of the easing cycle, but it does suggest that further cuts may be punctuated by pauses... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rate hike will do little to tame inflation The Uruguayan Central Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bps is unlikely to do much to tackle stubbornly high inflation. Strong price pressures are largely due to structural rigidities in the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Small steps forward don't lift the uncertainty Developments in the euro-zone last week brought the implementation of more decisive policy action to tackle the region’s debt crisis an important step closer. Most notably, the Spanish budget included... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak Q2 growth to prompt further rate cuts in Kenya Weaker-than-expected second quarter growth in Kenya reinforces the case for further rate cuts at the central bank’s next meeting in November. While we expect a slight pick-up in the second half of the... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch QE3 boost to be short-lived Rather than providing a further boost to oil prices, the announcement of open-ended quantitative easing (QE3) by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak. The focus is already... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
