UK Economics Update Big challenges ahead for whoever is Governor It should not be long until we hear who will replace Sir Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June. It is thought that the appointment of a Bank “insider” might just lead... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Oct.) & MPC Minutes (Nov.) October’s public finance figures – the last before the Autumn Statement in a fortnight’s time – suggested that there is still a significant risk that the Chancellor will break his fiscal rules unless... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals more aggressive easing At today’s MPC meeting, the Turkish central bank highlighted that it is becoming increasingly concerned about “hot” capital inflows and signalled that these could be countered with aggressive policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria likely to cut rates next year The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, but the outlook for slowing inflation and sub-trend growth means that monetary easing is likely to come onto the agenda in 2013... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What next for the Bank of Japan? The election of an LDP-led government would be unlikely to result in the dramatic shift in policy at the Bank of Japan than many now seem to expect. Proposals that threaten the independence of the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The Bank of Japan’s asset purchase program continues to drive growth in the monetary base. There are few signs of this feeding through to stronger credit demand. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broad M3 monetary aggregate edged up slightly to 5.5% in October and, with the Fed hinting at an expansion of its QE3 large-scale asset purchases in the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana to keep rates on hold throughout 2013 The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 15.00% today and, with inflation decelerating and concerns over the cedi easing, we expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2013. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) Although the Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report showed inflation projected to be broadly at its 2% target at the two year policy horizon, Mervyn King’s comments at the press conference... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board to wait to see impact of recent policy changes The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting next week is likely to be uneventful. The Board has eased monetary policy twice in three meetings over the last two months, and we see little justification for... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is monetary policy reaching its limits? Some members of the MPC appear to think that they are reaching the limits of how much monetary policy can help the economy. We agree that more gilt purchases might not do a lot of good. But this just... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Osborne’s windfall doesn’t change big picture The Government today agreed with the Bank of England to transfer to the Exchequer the excess cash held in the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) facility. This will leave the published borrowing figures... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further tightening to come via reserve requirements Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru provided further evidence that policymakers are not considering rate hikes despite vigorous domestic demand and credit growth. Instead, concerns over the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia signals rates to stay on hold The Central Bank of Russia kept its key interest rates on hold today and the accompanying statement suggests that any change in rates is unlikely in the very near-term. We still think that... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi provides very little comfort While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African CPI reweighting doesn't alter rate outlook The new weights assigned to components of the South African CPI basket, which are due to come into effect in January 2013, will have only a marginal impact on overall inflation. As such, the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
